Mock Draft 2012 1st Round (Week 16 edition)

Here is my mock draft for the NFL 2012 Draft. It is updated weekly with positions and picks redetermined depending on results, play and prediction updates.

Let me know in the comments section what your thoughts are.

#1 - Indianapolis, Andrew Luck QB, Stanford (underclassman)

Still got Andrew Luck out of Stanford going here despite it being a secondary need for the Colts. The only question left is whether Manning will be dealt and how will that affect the draft order if he does?

#2 - Minnesota, Matt Kalil-Offensive Tackle, USC (underclassman)

Kalil has declared for the 2012 draft. The Vikings are known to draft on need and coach Leslie Frazier (if still around) might want to draft Justin Blackmon here to give his new QB Christian Ponder a target. However there is no point having a target if you can’t stay upright, left tackle is almost as big a need as receiver and Kalil has the higher grade so this fits, for now.

#3 - St. Louis, Morris Claiborne-Cornerback, LSU (underclassman)

Expect the Rams to draft the best available player at a position of need. Probably would take Kalil if still there and may look at Riley Reiff but corner is an even bigger need than tackle at the moment and Claiborne is rated highly. Dre Kirkpatrick is another option here.

#4 Tampa Bay, Justin Blackmon-Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State

Tampa Bay like to take best player on board as long as it is a position of some need. There is no doubt that Freeman needs more help from his receivers although equally there is no doubt the Bucs need linebackers and corners desperately too. If Claiborne is still on the board that is another alternative as is Kirkpatrick who we predict to rise on the draft boards closer to April. Linebacker is a big need but less of an option due to the lack of a standout in that position.

#5 Cleveland, Trent Richardson-Halfback, Alabama (underclassman)

Holmgren has not been tempted by the flashy choices since taking over at Cleveland and will probably shun either QB or WR again for either more draft picks with a trade or a right tackle. Alternatively, he will take the best player on the board at the position of most need in Richardson. This pick could be altered if they keep Hillis around but Richardson looks like the next Adrian Peterson but with better hands so I can’t see the Browns passing that opportunity up.

#6 Miami, Robert Griffin III-Quarterback, Baylor (underclassman)

The Heismann trophy winner’s stock is rising fast and the flash of RGIII will probably be too much for owner Stephen Ross to ignore despite the fact the Dolphins have been very conservative in drafts in recent years. They also draft need and QB is the only choice here so it is just a matter of which one. Riley Reiff is another option here if they decided to persist with Matt Moore.

#7 Jacksonville, Alshon Jeffrey-Wide Receiver, Notre Dame

Since 2008 new owners have drafted skill positions 2/3’s of the time while new coach’s are also over 60%. With the Jaguars in both of these camps what bet they shun BPA for need this time around? Jeffrey fits the bill as a weapon for Blaine Gabbert although Matt Barkley also fits the bill should the new management team find Gabbert unworthy going forward - which isn't out of the realms of possibility.

#8 Buffalo, Matt Barkley-Quarterback, USC (underclassman)

Buffalo have sent mixed signals as to whether they would draft a quarterback or not over the last 2 seasons since Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey took over, but this time they will pull the trigger as Barkley is still on the board and too good to pass up. They still need a pass rusher and with Quentin Coples still available that could be the option too.

#9 Washington, Ryan Tannehill-Quarterback, Texas A&M

Mike Shanahan has been patient at Washington and drafted almost exclusively BPA but this time he makes a move, after missing out on Barkley who he may not have graded that high anyways, he goes for Tannehill who is rising fast and while this is a shock right now it might not be come March or April. Watch this space.

#10 Carolina TRADE with #15 Seattle, Landry Jones-Quarterback, Oklahoma (underclassman)

for 1^st, 3^rd & 6^th round picks

Carolina have some needs they could fill here but instead Seattle make a bold move and pick up a QB in Jones, and leave Kansas City looking to trade with the Colts for Manning or staying with Orton and Cassell.

#11 Kansas City, Riley Reiff-Offensive Tackle, Iowa (underclassman)

They wanted an O-Line but also were keen on a QB, now the Carolina-Seattle trade has put that decision out of their hands and they get an absolute steal in Reiff.

#12 - Cincinnati (from Oakland), Dre Kirkpatrick-Cornerback, Alabama (underclassman)

This is a guy who will rise up draft boards as the months progress and while he may not end up still here at #12 if he is this is a steal for Cincinnati who desperately need help at defensive back.

#13 - Arizona, Jonathan Martin-Offensive Tackle, Stanford (underclassman)

Arizona like to take a value pick at a position of need. OT is the obvious position for them and although dropping in value recently Martin is a pretty good choice for a team that is definitely on the improve.

#14 – Dallas, Quinton Coples-Defensive End, North Carolina

It’s hard to believe that Dallas will pick this high but that is our latest projection at mocknfldrafts.blogspot.com. If so they will have their choice of pass rushers which is a definite need and in the end settle for a man that very surprisingly drops out of the top ten in Coples.

#15 - Carolina (from Seattle), Michael Floyd-Wide Receiver, Notre Dame

Carolina have a need and they like to take it when it comes up so we project Michael Floyd here to replace an aging Steve Smith, although if the rumours are true that they are converting to 3-4 next year then an outside linebacker is more likely.

#16 - NY Giants, Mike Adams-Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

Giants fell badly at the end of the season and need help on the O-Line quite severely. If they replace Coughlin then the new coach might go for RB or WR but if not expect a need pick here as that is what history tells us with the Giants and the first round. Andrew Datko is another option here.

#17 - Chicago, Kendall Wright-Wide Receiver, Baylor

The Bears recent draft system is relatively unknown and the chance that Lovie Smith is still there is slim. So with a new coach we think they will go for the position most (or second most) in need in WR. O Line will still needs to be addressed. Nick Toon and Mohammed Sanu are other options.

#18 - Tennessee, Jerel Worthy-Defensive Tackle, Michigan State (underclassman)

It’s hard to believe that defense could be so largely ignored this draft but if so the Titans will have their pick of the litter to fill a need up front. They take Worthy who could play either tackle or end but may also go for Sam Montgomery if they’d prefer a presence on the outside.

#19 - Cincinnati, Zach Brown-Outside Linebacker, North Carolina

The Bengals get two picks in the first round and use it to grow their defense. Zach Brown will rush the pass in a 4-3 although they also like the look of Janoris Jenkins who would be considered if Kirkpatrick isn’t  taken by them earlier on.

#20 - San Diego, Donta’ Hightower-Inside Linebacker, Alabama (underclassman)

This is a tough choice for the Chargers that need help in the pass rush but also have an aging secondary. Some mockers will have you believe they will improve their horrible O-Line but if there is a new coach, they might prefer someone with a bit of flair and go for Hightower who could play outside or inside depending on if the Chargers change to a 4-3 or stay with 3-4.

#21 - Detroit, David DeCastro-Offensive Guard, Stanford (underclassman)

Detroit are quite happy to draft BPA over need but this time they get a 2 for 1 deal with David Decastro thus filling their biggest hole with the best player on the board.

#22 - Houston, Dontari Poe, Defensive Tackle, Memphis

A few weeks ago we had this pick quoted as “from out of nowhere” but now mockers are jumping on board. We have the Texans picking earlier than most after the Schaub injury but as they need a big NT, Poe could still be the man here over higher ranked OL, WR and CB options that could also fill a need.

#23 - Cleveland (from Atlanta), Chase Minnifield-Cornerback/Kick Returner, Virginia

The Browns need a CB and Minnifield is a guy that could rise the boards before too long with excellence intangibles and ability as a kick returner. Cleveland have Cribbs but may want to use him more in the offense and less in special teams. Either way this seems like a good choice for a team that likes to pick need but won’t reach too far to do it.

#24 - Pittsburgh, Courtney Upshaw-Outside Linebacker, Alabama

Pittsburgh have moved up the draft order considerably after last week’s loss but it won’t stop them taking BPA. This one works out doubly well as OLB is a need also. In fact getting Upshaw this low is an absolute steal that probably will never occur (well unless 5 QB’s go in the top ten that is!)

#25 - Philadephia, Luke Kuechly-Inside Linebacker, Boston College (underclassman)

Philly wisely go for need here as it is also a guy that is near the top of most draft boards at this point.

#26 - Denver, Alfonzo Dennard-Cornerback, Nebraska

The Broncos need help at Offensive Line but CB is a bigger issue and Dennard is BPA so this is a clear choice.

#27 – NY Jets, Cordy Glenn-Offensive Guard, Georgia

The Jets are completely desperate for a pass rush. Still Rex Ryan prefers to take BPA and goes with Glenn who will add depth on their ailing O-Line.

#28 – San Francisco, Janoris Jenkins-Cornerback, North Alabama

The Niners will either take a chance on Jenkins to overcome off-field issues at corner or look at either Mohammed Sanu, Rueben Randle or Nick Toon at receiver. Jayron Hosley is the other man at CB if Jenkins is considered too big a risk.

#29 - New England (from New Orleans), TJ McDonald-Safety, USC

Normally the Pats would trade their picks away but this year they need to fill a number of needs and may hang onto them. Secondary is definitely one area of need, they may prefer Mark Barron but we project McDonald to jump into the first round with his intangibles a key element.

#30 - New England, Peter Konz-Offensive Center, Wisconsin (underclassman)

The Pats need a center so this is an easy choice for a guy that is clearly first round material.

#31 - Baltimore, Jared Crick-Defensive End/Defensive Tackle, Nebraska

Baltimore have needs at O-Line as well as needing to cover for aging veterans Ray Lewis and Ed Reed at Linebacker and Safety however the Ravens will take BPA almost guaranteed so the only question is who is the highest player left on their board? We say Crick although others may go for Devon Still or Vontaze Burflict.

#32 - Green Bay, Lavonte David-Outside Linebacker, Nebraska

Green Bay need a pass rush badly and David could just be the guy to give it to them again. Mark Barron is another option here at Safety which is also a need.